So far this winter, James Paxton has been something of a forgotten man when it comes to the Red Sox’ search for starting pitching help. While Boston has been consistently linked to bigger names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto (before he signed with the Dodgers), Jordan Montgomery, Shōta Imanaga and even Blake Snell, there has been little talk about a reunion between the Sox and Paxton, who was their best starter for a long stretch last season.
Now, though, it seems like a deal is in play. Late last week, WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported that Boston has “strong interest” in bringing Paxton back. A source confirmed Monday that there has been consistent communication between the Red Sox and Paxton but nothing is imminent at this time. The Sox did increase their aggressiveness on other free agents once losing out on Yamamoto, according to sources, and the next week is expected to be a busy one for free agent starters. Veterans like Paxton, Giolito, Marcus Stroman and high-end free agents like Montgomery and Snell could all come off the board soon now that Yamamoto, the top free agent option, has a new home. Other available options include Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and Frankie Montas.
Paxton is a second-tier free agent arm behind some younger pitchers who will sign longer-term deals but will intrigue teams after showing flashes of dominance during his return to action in 2023. Now 35, the oft-injured lefty will likely have to sign a short-term deal (1-2 years) with a club banking on his upside. Interested clubs will certainly hope the first part of Paxton’s 2023 season is more predictive than the second half, when he tailed off, at least in part because of a nagging knee injury that ended his season a couple weeks early.
After overcoming multiple setbacks in his return from Tommy John surgery and making his season debut on May 12, Paxton was dominant in his first 10 starts, posting a 2.73 ERA and striking out 64 batters over 56 innings. Manager Alex Cora boldly proclaimed that Paxton was one of the best pitchers in the big leagues during that time — a number backed up by Paxton winning AL Pitcher of the Month honors in June. The second half of Paxton’s campaign was not nearly as sharp.
In nine outings after the All-Star break, Paxton allowed a 6.98 ERA while opposing hitters tagged him for 31 earned runs and 52 hits (including 10 homers) in 40 innings. After striking out 32.7% of batters he faced in his first seven starts, he punched out just 19.6% in his final 12. In total, the metrics generally liked Paxton’s season — especially when it came to his average fastball velocity of 95.2 mph — though he will have to limit hard contact more frequently in order to be effective in 2024.
Paxton was shut down in early September due to recurring knee pain — an issue he thought, along with the fact he had pitched just 21 ⅔ innings over the previous three seasons — contributed to his stuff getting less sharp down the stretch.
“I think it was the knee was not allowing me to brace on the front side. So that was taking away some of my direction to the plate. I wasn’t able to locate as well,” Paxton said during a September conversation at Fenway Park. “I think it made it hard to get on top of my breaking ball there at the end. And it took some life away from the fastball because I wasn’t able to really snap that front leg and get into my hips. I just I haven’t pitched much in the last three years. I got quite a few innings in there and probably started to tail off towards the end as well.”
Still, Paxton was pleased with the fact he was able to flash a high ceiling during the first half of the year and put him at his highest innings total since 2019. Paxton logged 96 innings in total, a mark that ranked just sixth on the Red Sox but still represented an important step forward in Paxton’s efforts to return to a full-time rotation staple.
“It was good to get back out there and compete at a level that I thought I could for quite a while there,” Paxton said. “I thought it was important to get some innings on my arm to finally have a base to come from, for next year. Coming from zero innings the last couple of years to get close to 100 innings, that was a positive for me.
“I’m ready to pitch next year,” he added. “What that looks like, where it is, I have no idea.”
Paxton’s foray into free agency this winter will represent a new experience for the lefty, who previously pitched for the Mariners and Yankees. He has been a free agent twice before, but under much different circumstance than now. After the 2020 season, his market was limited by an injury-riddled season during which a flexor strain in his arm limited him to just 20 ⅓ innings and settled for a one-year, $8.5 million deal to return to Seattle. A year later, he was less than eight months removed from Tommy John surgery when the Red Sox signed him to a creative one-year deal with an option he ended up exercising instead of testing the open market. This time around, despite the inherent injury risk, Paxton is better-positioned to land a somewhat lucrative deal.
“It all comes into play,” Paxton said when asked what would go into his free agent decision. “It’s not just one thing that makes a decision for you in free agency. It’s the package of everything. And you make a decision with your family and then you move forward.”
Though Paxton said the Red Sox did not approach him about an extension at any point during the season, the consistent contact between the sides since the end of the year suggests mutual interest in a fit. Paxton appreciated the organization’s commitment to getting him healthy throughout 2022 and the beginning of 2023 and said he’s more than open to a return engagement.
“I had a great experience here,” he said. “Really enjoyed the people, really enjoyed my teammates, the team, the city, fans, everything. We’ll see what happens.
“I think the future’s bright here. There’s some great talent coming through and you’ve seen that a lot (in September) with these guys playing. I think the future is bright for for the Boston Red Sox.”
