The Minnesota Vikings‘ run game needs a fix after ranking in the bottom five of the NFL last season, prompting Pro Football Focus (PFF) to urge the Vikings to sign two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry this offseason.
In a February 5 article, PFF’s Brad Spielberger pointed to the Vikings’ struggles in the run game after they finished with the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (91.3) and the fifth-fewest attempts per game (23.1).
“Minnesota’s rushing attack was one of the least efficient across the NFL this past season, and they may also be looking to bring along a young quarterback whether or not they keep Kirk Cousins in the fold,” Spielberger wrote, suggesting Henry could be a potential “buy-low candidate.”
“This front office may not be viewed as one very likely to pay top dollar to the running back position, especially after they sharply moved on from Dalvin Cook before the 2023 season, but maybe there’s enough of a buy-low opportunity here on Henry.”
Henry’s four-year, $50 million deal with the Tennessee Titans expires in March, and there’s a possibility the Vikings could land the perennial Pro Bowl back for a discount as he enters the 2024 offseason at the age of 30.
Derrick Henry Would Give the Vikings a Juggernaut Offense
The Vikings made the right call moving off Cook in a year when the four-time Pro Bowl back declined significantly with the New York Jets. However, they have not found a productive replacement for Cook after a disappointing season from Alexander Mattison.
Henry is another running back who is subject to hitting a serious drop off at his age and mileage in the NFL — but PFF has found Henry has bucked many trends suggesting a decline at his age.
“There is only one ‘Tractorcito,’ with Henry’s usage as a screen receiver in recent seasons adding another element to his game,” PFF’s free agency report reads. “Henry has not yet hit the proverbial wall, whether that is tied to a running back’s age or total carries. His 3.32 yards after contact per attempt in 2023 was still a top-tier mark.”
No matter the metric, Henry is still in the green.
He’s positive in NFL Next Gen’s rushing yards over expected (RYOE). According to PFF, Henry ranked second in total yards after contact (930), sixth in breakaway percentage (33%) and averaged a healthy 4.2 yards per carry despite facing eight-man fronts on 35.36% of his rushing attempts — the second-highest rate in the league behind on Christian McCaffrey.
Henry is still one of the hardest backs to bring down in the NFL, and that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon. He’s missed just one game in the past two seasons.
Father time is still undefeated, but Henry also doesn’t have to handle 300-plus carries a season with his next team. The Vikings could give him the lead back duties but sprinkle in doses of Ty Chandler as a change of pace back.
A back like Henry who could command eight defenders in the box would also create a conflict for defenses that have to account for Justin Jefferson as well.
Vikings’ Future at QB Could Change Run Game for the Future
Cousins’ fate with the Vikings will ultimately determine what direction the offense will go in the next few years.
There’s a case to be made that the team could go all-in on the offense if they extend Cousins, which would create significant cap space in the short term, but ultimately lead to even more dead cap that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has attempted to mitigate since he took over two years ago.
There’s also the consideration of investing heavier at running back for a couple of seasons to help provide necessary support for a rookie quarterback.
PFF projected Henry to net a two-year, $20 million deal in free agency — a premium annual value of $10 million that could be worthwhile in rounding out the Vikings offense.
