Patrick Mahomes aims to do something he has never been forced to do as quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs; win an AFC Championship Game away from the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
One week after Mahomes led the Chiefs past the Buffalo Bills, 27-24, in the AFC Divisional Round, Kansas City looks to clinch a second consecutive Super Bowl berth on January 28th in Baltimore against the Ravens.
Mahomes puts his 3-2 record in AFC Championship Games on the line against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, a game that our partners at Quarter4 give Baltimore a 57% chance of winning.
Here’s a look at three AI-powered predictions for Mahomes in the AFC Championship game.
1. Ravens Hold Patrick Mahomes to Under 275 Passing Yards
Despite the caliber of defenses escalating as the playoffs go on, some of Mahomes’ finest performances have come in the postseason.
In Mahomes’ 16 career playoff games, the two-time MVP has surpassed 300 yards five times and 400 passing yards once in his career.
However, our model projects the Ravens’ defense to give Mahomes fits and hold him to the sixth-fewest passing yards in his playoff career.
The Heavy Sports model projects Mahomes to complete 25.2 of his 35.7 passing attempts for just 274.8 yards. While surpassing 274 yards would be Mahomes’ most of these playoffs, they are far below his career averages.
Baltimore, led by a star-studded secondary, finished the 2023 campaign as the No. 6 ranked passing defense in the league, holding opponents to just 191.9 passing yards per game.
If the model holds true, Mahomes’ passing yards total would surpass his regular season per-game average for the 2023 campaign but would fall short of his 285-yard per-game average during his postseason career.
2. Patrick Mahomes’ Touchdown Pass Streak Will Continue
Entering Sunday afternoon’s AFC Championship Game, Mahomes has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of the past 10 games, including each of the Chiefs’ postseason contests.
Not only does our model expect Mahomes to pass a touchdown, but gives him a puncher’s chance at a second consecutive multi-touchdown performance this postseason.
The Heavy Sports model projects Mahomes to toss 1.8 touchdowns, which would surpass his regular season per-game average of just 1.5 touchdowns.
In his career against the Ravens, Mahomes has passed for 12 touchdowns — his fourth-highest total against any opponent, in four career games against Baltimore.
3. Patrick Mahomes Will Finally Be Sacked This Postseason
Kansas City has done a masterful job of protecting Mahomes over the past two weeks.
Despite going up against a dominant front-seven against the Miami Dolphins, and a consistent pass rush in Buffalo against the Bills, Mahomes escaped both contests without being sacked.
Our model projects that streak will come to an end in Baltimore.
The Heavy Sports model projects that the Ravens will sack Mahomes 2.8 times, handing the Chiefs a total of 17.8 yards lost on those sacks.
Baltimore’s chances of advancing past the Chiefs and into the Super Bowl likely start with stopping Mahomes.
During the regular season, Mahomes was sacked 27 times, or 1.5 times per game. Meanwhile, no team got to the quarterback more often than the Ravens did, posting a league-high 60 sacks during the 2023 campaign.
