Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s free agency is dominating MLB’s offseason, but it may be nearing a conclusion.
The 45-day window for Yamamoto to reach an agreement with a major league team remains open through Jan. 4. But the 25-year-old — who has won three straight Sawamura awards as the top NPB pitcher, and was 16-6 with a 1.21 ERA, 27 percent strikeout rate, and 4 percent walk rate in 2023 — is accepting offers from interested teams, according to major league sources.
Yamamoto’s combination of age and talent could propel the bids for his services to historic levels. While members of the industry viewed a deal of $200 million as within reach at the start of the offseason, the allure of the righthander’s skill set and relative youth has raised the bar considerably. (He’s roughly four years younger than Gerrit Cole was when the Yankees signed the 2023 AL Cy Young winner to a $324 million deal.)
Predictions are complicated given Yamamoto could pursue a wide variety of contract structures, from the seven- to eight-year deals typically garnered by aces in their primes, to deals of more than a decade, to ones with opt-outs. Opt-outs are further complicated by the posting fee to his current NPB club, Orix, which is calculated based on the deal’s guarantee.
For instance: If Yamamoto agrees to an eight-year, $260 million deal that includes an opt-out after three years, that equals a $40.775 million posting fee regardless of whether Yamamoto opts out. Assuming evenly distributed salaries, a team might pay $138.275 million for three seasons — three years at $32.5 million each, plus the fee.
Regardless of the structure, bidding for Yamamoto hovers over the rest of the pitching market. The Red Sox, who sent a contingent to Los Angeles for a face-to-face conversation last week, are one of several large-market teams that have met with the pitcher.
The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays, and Phillies reportedly have had in-person meetings. Over the weekend, Yamamoto met with both Mets and Yankees officials in New York. According to a major league source, his visit to the East Coast did not include additional teams.
Many in the industry who are not directly involved in Yamamoto’s free agency see the two New York teams as frontrunners, and view the Red Sox as dark horses. That said, such speculation comes without direct knowledge of what Yamamoto is prioritizing in selecting a team or what kinds of contract offers have been made.
Despite multiple reports over the weekend that Yamamoto already had offers of $300 million in hand, ESPN reported Monday that Yamamoto’s agent, Joel Wolfe, had been asking interested teams to hold off on discussions of dollars and terms. However, ESPN also reported Wolfe was expected to start taking bids as soon as Monday.
The baseball world is eagerly awaiting Yamamoto’s decision, as his presence has slowed the flow of the rest of the pitching market. There is an expectation that interest in other top free-agent targets (including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Shōta Imanaga) and trade candidates (Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and more) will heighten once teams in pursuit of Yamamoto are forced to turn elsewhere.
