This is the part of the NFL off season that usually comes down to one simple question. And that question could lead to a Super Bowl or to the unemployment line.

Teams that make the right choice are often in the playoffs while teams that chose wrong are often rebuilding or looking towards next season. The Jets have been “looking at next season” for over a decade.

The question could mean everything in a sports league that has a salary cap looming over every decision. Unlike the draft when there are hundreds of players to choose from, this question only has two answers. The question is a simple one: pay him or lose him.

For the Jets, they face one of the biggest decisions on a player in a long time. Do they pay Bryce Huff or do they let him walk?

I wrote in my Jets offseason road map that I thought it was important for the Jets to resign Huff. He is a dominant pass rusher and those are not easy to find. My feeling was that the Jets would offer him $12-$13 million a year and he would want $16-$17 million and they would settle in the $15 million range. AtoZ’s own Josh Quiepo and Kyle Dedminicantanio project Huff’s contract somewhere in the $14-$15 million range.

But according to a new report from ESPN NFL Nation Jets writer, Rich Cimini, Huff could be seeking as much as $20 million a year.

For the record, I root for players to get every penny they can while they have the leverage to do so, and Huff is no exception. If he can get that much money from a team, then he should take it and I will wish him a fond farewell (provided he goes out of the AFC East). But the Jets cannot be the team to give him that contract.

It’s not that I don’t think Huff is a great player. I think he does one of the most important jobs on a football field extremely well. With Huff on the field, the Jets allowed a miniscule passer rating of 69.8, compared to 83.1 when he was on the sideline. That’s a significant difference that shouldn’t be ignored.

But Huff returning to the Jets has three major hurdles to overcome. The first being that the Jets are not flush with cash and have much more glaring issues to spend their limited cap space on. The Jets currently sit around $3 million over the cap in effective cap space according to overthecap.com. What effective cap space means is the cap space a team will have after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class to its roster.

Some talking heads will tell you that they can restructure a few contracts and $80 million in cap space will magically appear, but it’s not that simple. In reality the Jets will be working on a small margin with some significant damage to their future or losing some key players sooner than expected.

The second hurdle to resigning Huff is the Jets already drafted his replacement in the first round. I’m not saying Will McDonald IV is going to be as good as Bryce Huff, but that is the gamble Joe Douglas and co took when they selected the kid with their top pick in last year’s draft.

The last hurdle is perhaps the biggest and the reason the Jets will draw a hard line in the sand when it comes to the price they will pay to retain Huff. He only played 42% of the defensive snaps last season and never started. He is a situational player in their eyes and you can’t pay $20 million for a situational player.

Bryce Huff: From undrafted FA to undeniably the #Jets best pass rusher. But can they afford to keep him? Better question: Can they afford to lose him? Let’s take a closer look. https://t.co/Ye775i5MP9

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) February 15, 2024

To get the kind of contract he seems to be seeking, Huff will have to convince a team that he can be just as effective on first and second downs as he is on third down. He will have to show more than just great pass rushing skills and prove to be an asset in the run game as well.

Huff has already stated (rightfully) that he will not be offering any “home team discounts” and will sign with the team that offers him what he feels he is worth. As an undrafted rookie who had to fight for everything he got in the NFL thus far, that is really the only mindset to have.

My feeling at this point is that the Jets will be in the running for Huff but ultimately, he will sign elsewhere for a number that the Jets simply won’t be willing to match. Will McDonald, you are the next man up.