The Cleveland Browns aren’t willing to call their deal for Deshaun Watson a disaster, but it’s creeping ever closer to that definition.

General manager Andrew Berry guaranteed Watson $230 million over five years to lure him to Cleveland after spending his final year with the Houston Texans entirely on the sidelines. The Browns also handed over three first-round picks, a third-round selection and two fourth-rounders to Houston to get the trade done.

So what has Cleveland acquired for by far the most expensive decision in franchise history?

The unfortunate answer to that question is 12 regular-season starts (8-4) across two seasons, a sub-60% completion percentage (59.8%), a subpar 6.5 yards per pass attempt on 2,217 total passing yards and 14 TDs against 9 INTs, per Pro Football Reference.

Watson missed 11 games in 2022 due to an NFL suspension and 11 games in 2023 due to shoulder surgery. His contract appears an un-tradable asset slung around the franchise’s proverbial neck, though Bill Barnwell of ESPN contended on Monday, January 15 that there might be a way out for Cleveland after all.

The Browns can’t undo the trade, but would [Joe] Flacco’s success lead them to give up on Watson? He is owed $138 million over the next three seasons, all of which is guaranteed, but the structure of his contract would make him movable.

The Browns can’t cut him, but if they found a trade partner, they would owe $62.9 million in dead money, which is essentially what they’ll owe for him to be on the roster next season.

Browns May Be Able to Find Desperate Team Willing to Trade for Deshaun Watson’s Contract

The counter argument: what NFL front office in its right mind would take on Watson for all that money? The answer is perhaps more than one might think.

“While there’s no way the Browns would be able to expect a significant return for Watson after two disappointing seasons, would they find another team willing to accept the responsibility of his deal for the cost of a conditional seventh-round pick?” Barnwell wrote. “I would say no, but I’ve learned never to underestimate how desperate teams can talk themselves into quarterbacks.”

Watson was a three-time Pro Bowler between 2018-20 and will turn just 29 years old at the beginning of next season. He threw for more than 4,000 yards twice in Houston, leading the NFL with 4,823 passing yards in 2020.

A general manager, if he or she desires, can explain away Watson’s struggles last season by noting that the QB hadn’t stepped onto a professional football field for any game that actually mattered for approximately two years. As far as 2023 is concerned, Watson was 5-1 as a starter and recorded a 116.8 passer rating in the second half of games, which is the second-best figure for any QB in the NFL with at least 150 attempts.

Barnwell listed that statistic in his piece Monday, couching it by noting that Watson had a passer rating of 63.9 in the first half of games (second-worst among qualifying QBs). Luck was also a factor, in that Watson’s receivers dropped no passes in the second half of his games compared to 6.6% of them in the first halves. Watson was also a beneficiary of the league’s best defense, which sustained serious injuries and saw its turnover production dip as the season went on because of that.

Joe Flacco Logical Replacement at QB if Browns Can Trade Deshaun Watson

Wrapping up Barnwell’s trade argument: Cleveland can save $75 million and perhaps get a conditional seventh-round draft pick back in return from a team desperate enough for help at QB. The move, if the Browns can make it, will still cost the franchise $63 million and will subtract their starting signal-caller from the roster.

If that path opens up and the Browns decide to traverse it, Flacco is the obvious replacement for Watson. He finished the regular season with a 4-1 record, instilling belief in the locker room and a connection with the fan base.

Flacco, who turns 39 years old on Tuesday, was far from perfect. He threw 8 interceptions in five regular-season games and pick-6s on consecutive drives in the second half of Cleveland’s Wild Card Game against the Texans, which broke the Browns’ collective back and brought their playoff run to an end.

Still, Flacco’s ability to push the ball downfield and more effectively utilize play action unlocked some things for Cleveland’s offense. He also figures to be a reasonably-priced replacement compared to Watson.

Flacco earned just $2.5 million in 2023 and while that number is likely to spike considerably in 2024, it will still fall well short of the $64 million cap number Watson will carry in each of the next three seasons if he remains in Cleveland.