Both the Bears and Falcons are more likely to land Turner than the Vikings due to their quarterback situations.

Chicago will presumably use its top overall pick to select USC’s Caleb Williams, then will come up on the board again two picks ahead of the Vikings. After trading a fourth-rounder to the Los Angeles Chargers for wide receiver Keenan Allen, the Bears no longer appear in the market for a high-end prospect at that position. That leaves the edge and potentially left tackle as the two areas of need Chicago might address inside the top 10.

Meanwhile, the Falcons stole Kirk Cousins out from under Minnesota on the strength of a four-year deal worth $180 million, which includes $100 million guaranteed, at the beginning of free agency. ESPN’s Mel Kiper predicted in his updated mock draft on March 19 that the Falcons will make Turner the first defensive player off the board with the 8th pick, one spot before the Bears’ second selection and three spots ahead of the Vikings.

“This is another pairing that makes too much sense. It’s a combo of biggest positional need and best available prospect,” Kiper wrote. “The Falcons, of course, made the biggest splash in free agency by signing quarterback Kirk Cousins, but their defense is mostly the same. They have to get better along the defensive line. … Turner had 22.5 sacks over three college seasons and he improved his pressure rates every season. He’s the clear No. 1 edge rusher in this class.”

The card Minnesota has to play is two first-round picks, with which the team can easily leapfrog both the Bears at No. 9 and Falcons at No. 8 and put itself in position to draft Turner out from under them. The complication, however, is that the Vikings currently intend to use those assets to move into the top five to land a quarterback.

The Vikings signed Jonathan Greenard to a $76 million contract and Andrew Van Ginkel to a $20 million deal in free agency, addressing the openings left by the departures of Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport earlier this month. That isn’t to say the blitz-heavy Minnesota defense couldn’t use an elite-level edge rusher playing a premier position on a rookie contract, but Turner isn’t currently the priority.

Instead, the priority is a QB — namely either Drake Maye of UNC or J.J. McCarthy of Michigan. Who the Vikings are able to land remains in question and will depend largely on how high up they can get via a trade.

The Arizona Cardinals, who own the No. 4 overall pick, are the wildcard variable in the equation. The Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots have all positioned themselves to take QBs with the top three selections, respectively. The Chargers are primed to move off the No. 5 pick for the right offer.

Minnesota’s accumulation of two first-rounders in 2024, along with a 2025 first-rounder, should be plenty to move into the fifth spot. However, other teams like the New York Giants (6), Denver Broncos (12) and Las Vegas Raiders (13) could try and maneuver into the fourth spot and squeeze the Vikings out.

If that doesn’t happen, the Vikings can guarantee themselves one of the top four QBs with the fifth pick — likely Maye or McCarthy, as most draft insiders are projecting Williams and Jayden Daniels to go first and second overall. Or, Minnesota can make a godfather offer to the Cardinals to move into the fourth spot and guarantee itself one of the top four QBs.

However, if the Vikings are going to part with three first-round picks, the best scenario would be to send those to New England in return for the third pick, which would afford Minnesota its choice between Maye and McCarthy.

But if none of that works out, Turner is a viable backup plan as the Vikings reset and formulate another plan toward a franchise quarterback.