The Minnesota Vikings‘ QB situation is fluid, which makes connections to several top free agents and draft prospects viable, but some scenarios are far more likely than others.
Re-signing Kirk Cousins remains Minnesota’s first priority, information that has come directly from general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah multiple times this offseason, including at the NFL Combine last week. But more than signing Baker Mayfield or trading the No. 42 overall pick to the Chicago Bears for Justin Fields, the Vikings’ second most attractive option feels like trading up for a rookie QB with franchise potential.
With that premise in mind, the realistic options include three or four players depending on how high Minnesota can get. Trading with the New England Patriots, who hold the No. 3 pick, brings a player like Jayden Daniels potentially into play. However, the price of moving up just eight spots may cost the Vikings three first-round picks.
Instead, SB Nation’s Daily Norseman predicted that Minnesota will make a deal with the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 and select reigning national champion quarterback J.J. McCarthy out of the University of Michigan.
The premise is based on a report from SB Nation’s Arizona Cardinals coverage indicating that the team will select Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio State at No. 4, which will incentivize the Chargers to trade down and accumulate more draft capital in the process.
If this is true, it means the first real trade-up opportunity for the Vikings is going to be the Chargers at 5.
Someone's going to end up moving up to take McCarthy. It's probably going to be Kwesi. https://t.co/HJOqxz2q5p
— The Daily Norseman ░V░I░K░ I░N░G░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░0░ (@DailyNorseman) March 6, 2024
“If this is true, it means the first real trade-up opportunity for the Vikings is going to be the Chargers at 5,” Daily Norseman posted to X on Wednesday, March 6. “Someone’s going to end up moving up to take McCarthy. It’s probably going to be Kwesi [Adofo-Mensah].”
J.J. McCarthy Will Likely Cost Vikings Less at Pick No. 5 Than Any Other QB at No. 3
Minnesota may be able to get in the game to trade with the Washington Commanders at No. 2 or the Patriots at No. 3, but neither team will accept even equal value for the QB they can take in that spot, and both franchises are leaning toward quarterbacks based on the whole of national reporting over the past several weeks.
The Chargers already have their franchise QB in Justin Herbert and a new front office/coaching regime that needs to cut salary and find young, inexpensive talent this offseason — rendering L.A. a prime candidate to trade down in the first round.
Meanwhile, the Star Tribune’s Ben Goessling told KFAN’s Paul Allen in late January that the Vikings “wouldn’t bat an eye” at surrendering a couple of first-round picks to get their QB of the future.
The No. 11 pick this year and their 2025 first-rounder is far more acceptable of a price for the Vikings to pay for a player like McCarthy than tossing in an extra first-round selection in 2026 would be to move up to No. 3. That is especially true when there is no guarantee that Daniels — or whomever Minnesota likes the most after Caleb Williams (the Bears’ presumptive No. 1 pick) — will be there after Washington selects at No. 2.
Vikings Can Stay Put at No. 11 and Sign Bridge QB if They Like Bo Nix
McCarthy’s stock is on the rise after a strong combine, and he is a solid bet to go in the top 10 considering the importance of the position and the strong need at quarterback across the NFL.
However, depending on the Vikings’ evaluations of what is a deep class under center, Minnesota may be able to acquire a player in Bo Nix out of Oregon who the team likes even more than McCarthy without having to give up a thing.
NFL analyst and former professional quarterback Chris Simms released his top-six rankings via social media on Wednesday, listing Nix ahead of McCarthy, but placing both in the category of “franchise starting QB.” Joining them in that category was Michael Penix Jr. of Washington.
Here’s my Top 6 QBs in this year’s Draft. These rankings are based on film.
Full pod coming soon pic.twitter.com/RvCdgBhBg4— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) March 6, 2024
Simms named Williams the top prospect in “a class of his own” followed by Daniels as the only second-tier player, saying he is the type of QB who could have been the No. 1 pick in other years. Simms diverged from popular opinion by listing Drake Maye of UNC — thought by many to be the No. 3 prospect in this class — as a fourth-tier player and a “talented project.”
Russell Wilson Floated as Inexpensive Bridge Starter for Vikings in 2024
What might make the most sense for Minnesota, assuming Cousins doesn’t return, is to set in place a plan to trade up with the Chargers should the draft fall in the most widely predicted order — with QBs going at Nos. 1, 2 and 3 (with Williams and Daniels both off the board) and Harrison coming off at No. 4.
At that point, the Vikings can gauge what is in front of them, as the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders are both in the market for QBs but could each secure one via free agency and/or a trade before the draft begins in April.
If Minnesota is afraid it can’t select its player of choice at No. 11, it can leapfrog one or both of the Falcons and Raiders into the No. 5 slot. If the situation doesn’t require that aggressive of a play, the Vikings can stay home and wait to pick their franchise QB.
In the meantime, Minnesota can look to a player like Sam Darnold or Russell Wilson as a bridge starter to whichever young player the team ultimately drafts, which is something Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics recently suggested when he predicted Wilson will start for the Vikings Week 1 in 2024.
“Let’s call this Wilson plus Oregon’s Bo Nix,” Walder wrote on February 27. “Cousins might end up back in Minnesota, but I could see the Vikings balking at giving him a multiyear guaranteed contract. If he’s out of the picture, Wilson is probably the next-best short-term solution.”
The Denver Broncos intend to release Wilson when the new league year begins on March 13 and with all the dead money he is owed, Wilson may be willing to a sign a deal for the minimum.
