The New York Yankees spent significant trade capital to acquire Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres this offseason — dealing a Gold Glove outfielder, several pitchers and more. And while Soto projects to upgrade their batting order significantly, he is set to become an unrestricted free agent after the season.

If the Yankees are unable to extend him during the season, he could command a historically-large contract as he enters the prime of his career. Writing up “MLB predictions” for 2024, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden projected that the Yankees will ultimately be the ones to lock him into such a long-term deal.

“Juan Soto, who rejected a $440 million offer from the Nationals in 2022 before he was dealt to the Padres at the trade deadline, reaches free agency this November and eventually becomes the second half-a-billion-dollar player in MLB history (after Shohei Ohtani), when he re-signs with the Yankees on a 14-year deal worth $501 million,” Bowden predicted.

He added that he believes the Yankees will outbid the New York Mets, who have been linked to a pursuit of Soto for 2025 and beyond, by $1 million to keep him.

How Much Will it Cost the New York Yankees to Re-Sign Juan Soto?

No matter where Soto ends up signing his next contract, it seems almost certain he will make history.

Bowden’s colleague at The Athletic, Tim Britton, concurred that Soto’s next contract is likely to be in the 14-year range. He added that, based on mega deals signed by the likes of Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Yankees teammate Aaron Judge, Soto could be in line for even more than Bowden predicted.

“If a single win above replacement is valued at about $9 million on the open market, that makes Soto’s prime years worth $50 million apiece,” according to Britton. “So let’s value the first five years of a Soto contract at $50 million each and his age-31 through age-39 seasons at 80 percent of Judge, or $32 million. Add those two pieces together and you get a 14-year deal worth right around $540 million in free agency.”

That would give Soto the second-largest contract in MLB history, behind Shohei Ohtani, who signed for $700 million over 10 years with the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason. But Ohtani is a two-way superstar, so a $500 million-plus deal for Soto would make him the highest-paid offensive player ever.

The existing contract records for hitters are held by Mookie Betts (a 12-year, $365 million extension with the Dodgers), Mike Trout (a 10-year, $360 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels) and Judge (a nine-year, $360 million free agent contract with the Yankees).

Juan Soto’s Production Could Earn Him a Record-Breaking Contract for 2025 and Beyond

Soto’s career thus far certainly justified a contract within this range. He is a three-time All-Star, two-time MLB First Team member, four-time Silver Slugger Award winner and was the 2020 National League batting champion. In a six-year MLB career, he has a career .284/.421/.524 slash line with 160 home runs and 640 walks. That OBP figure makes him the active career leader in all of MLB.

A career year with the Yankees in 2024 could do even more to bolster his upcoming contract.

“Soto benefits from hitting ahead of Judge and puts up career highs in runs scored and home runs,” Bowden added in his predictions.